This pick was released to clients on August 10, 2012 at 4:17PM ET.
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Houston at Tennessee

November 10, 2002
img4:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Don’t get me wrong – the Titans are the better team. But 9.5 points is a whole lot to lay for a team that has one of the worst defenses in the league (especially against the pass).

As if it weren’t a theme this week, we again see the linesmakers and public overreacting to the recent past. A big loss as favorite for the Texans last week and three straight wins by the Titans.

The Texans have covered their last two contests when getting 10 or more points. Even lowly expansion teams have pride and they will be eager to make amends for a poor game last week against the hapless Bengals (who not surprisingly took advantage of the one real shot they had at winning a game so far this year). Texan WR Corey Bradford said it best this week: “It was like going home to your mommy and telling her you got a bad report card." Expect Houston to play hard this week.

Finally, don’t be surprised if Tennessee takes the Texans lightly in this game and find themselves in a tight one. If the stars align, Houston could even pull the upset!

4 units on Houston +9.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)
Result:
WIN
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