Houston at Philadelphia

Last week we were on the Bears to cover against the Eagles. It was Philly's first loss with Michael Vick at quarterback. That was a great spot to fade the Eagles as I wrote here. They were coming off a very tough stretch of important games. After playing good football for weeks, it was a classic letdown spot. Well, Philly lost that one and as a result there will be no letdown here. The Eagles gave up 31 points to the Bears, highlighting how important Asante Samuel is for this team. The bad news for the Texans is that Samuel is expected back this week. If he succeeds in taking the deep threat of Andre Johnson out of the Houston offense, the Texans will struggle more than expected to score. The Eagles have generated 29 sacks on the season, and always seem to come up big at home. Houston is a bad team playing on a short week which usually ends in disaster. Teams playing on Thursday as a road dog in the NFL are a dismal 20-38 ATS, good for 34.4%. The Texans own the second worst pass defense in the league and after this week, it may be ranked dead last. They have allowed 38 completions of 20+ yards already this season so DeSean Jackson has to be licking his lips. The Eagles have gone 31-16 ATS in their last 47 games vs. bad defenses (those allowing 5.7+ yards per play). That includes a good 16-5 ATS mark vs. such teams in November and December. Under Andy Reid, the Eagles are 41-29 ATS as a favorite in this range (3.5 to 9.5 points). The Reid-led Eagles are also 17-8 ATS after giving up 30+ points last game. I don't often back favorites, nevermind big favorites. But, I really believe the Eagles are the much better team and they are very motivated here and they will win big. I also like the UNDER a lot in this game. Houston has been all about high-scoring games this season, but what may have gone unnoticed is that their offense has really slowed down. They scored 30+ in four of their first six games. But since then, they have not reached 30 once, averaging just 22.2 points per game over their last five! Houston has gone 14-4 UNDER in their last 18 December road games. Philly is 12-3 UNDER in their last 15 home games following a road game in which they allowed 24+ points. They are also 52-39 UNDER when coming off an OVER under Andy Reid. In Thursday games with a total of 38+ and the home team favored have gone 28-14 UNDER in the last 42 such games. The public is on the Eagles and the OVER here. My computer matchup predicts an 8-point Eagles win. I like Philly to cover and this game to fall UNDER the total.