Houston at New York

Early on, the New York Jets looked to be a team headed for a potential Super Bowl appearance. Their defense early was as good as ever and Mark Sanchez looked like he was maturing into a top flight NFL QB. Through the first five games, Sanchez had eight TD passes and no interceptions. That was a marked improvement from his 2009-10 season. How things have changed. Sanchez has thrown just four TD passes in his last four games, while serving up six INT's with at least one pick thrown in every game. The Jets defense has allowed 20+ points in four of their last five games and it took two miracle finishes to win in OT the last two games vs. losing teams (Detroit and Cleveland). Prior to that, only a late pass interference call kept the Jets from losing to another losing team (Denver). So while the Jets still look very impressive at 7-2, they aren't quite as strong as they appear on the surface. Houston is again shaping up as a dissapointment. But the one thing this team does well (throw the ball), matches up very nicely with New York's achilles heel. The Jets are 5th overall on defense, but 15th against the pass. And, Houston's biggest weakness (defense) is not one that the Jets have been able to exploit. New York is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 vs. bad defensive teams (those allowing 375+ yards per game). The Texans have come up big as a road dog having gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 in that role. They have also gone 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games when coming off a road loss and 28-14 ATS after back-to-back losses. The Jets are just 3-7 ATS at home as a favorite of 3.5-10 in their last 10 games posted in this range. I like Houston in this one.