Houston at New England

The New England Patriots have been hosting and winning playoff games at a rate higher than any other team since the dynamic duo of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick came together. However, Brady's numbers have not been all that spectacular in the playoffs in the most recent years. He opened his playoff career with a bang at 10-0, but has since been a more mortal 12-9. His passer rating in those 21 games is also a mortal 88. And, he's facing a coach here that knows him very well as Bill O'Brien was Brady's QB coach for two season in 2009 and 2010. Houston also owns the league's best defense in terms of yards allowed. Brock Osweiler did not have the season the Texans thought he would. But, when it mattered the most last week in the playoffs vs. Oakland, he did not turn the ball over and put up 27 points. The fact is that his numbers overall are good at 25-10 straight-up and 20-13-2 ATS, and his team has averaged 24.9 points per game. In their last 53 games at home, the OVER has been gone 33-19. I supsect Brady puts up ample points in this one, but I also think that Houston is going to get their fair share. In the Belichick era, the Pats are 31-18 OVER after a double-digit road win and 42-28 OVER after scoring 35+ points the previous game and 21-5 OVER when facing a marginally winning team like Houston (teams at .510 to .600). In the Brady era, the Pats have had some pretty amazing teams. But when these great teams were laying 6 points or more in the playoffs, they are just 6-10 ATS including 1-3 ATS when laying more than  Too many points. Take Houston and the OVER.