Houston at Miami

Houston must win to keep hopes alive for their first-ever winning season. I think they bring a lot of intensity to this game. There has been one constant for the Dolphins this season. Put them against a top QB, and they are in trouble. Other than the second New England game when they faced an injured Tom Brady, the Dolphins have fallen to all other top-notch quarterbacks. Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady (game 1) and Drew Brees all took care of business vs. the Fins. Enter one of the hottest QBs in the NFL right now in Matt Schaub. Schaub has completed 72% of his passes for 732 yards, three TDs and one INT in his last two games. The Dolphins rely on blitzing and getting to the QB. Against less-capable signal callers, they have had success and they've posted 40 sacks on the season. The problem is that Schaub has not taken a sack in the last two games, and just 23 for the season. If Vince Young can throw all over against the Dolphins’ secondary, Schaub and Andre Johnson should have a field day. The Texans have shored-up a poor run defense and since early October have had just three games allowing over 100 yards. Ricky Williams has new-found ball security issues having become a fumble machine. Chad Henne is like a box of cracker jacks, you never know what you’re going to get, good or bad. The Texans never used to be a good road team, but have now matured and gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven. Meanwhile the Dolphins continue to implode at home at just 5-22 ATS in their last 27 as home chalk. I like the Texans here.