Houston at Indianapolis

The Colts are simply not close to the team they have been the last several seasons. They have already played four games in which they have scored less than 20 points. Compare that to last season in which they failed to reach 21 just once (not counting week 17 when no starters played). The Colts had a big game vs. Baltimore several weeks back, tallying 31 against a solid Ravens defense, and Colts fans were hopeful. Since then, they have managed to average just 18.8 ppg and that Baltimore game is looking more and more like a fluke. The Colts should not be laying nearly double-digits, especially with an average defense that doesn't get to the QB. Despite a 3-6 record, Houston has only been out of one game since week three and that was last week. Their embarrassing blowout loss in that game adds value here. The Texans have only been out of games vs. top defenses, fighting hard in every other game. This line reflects the good Colts team of prior years and not this year. And, even when Indy's offense was clicking, they didn't cover big spreads vs. poor defensive teams like Houston. The Colts are just 6-18 ATS in their last 24 vs. teams that allow 24+ ppg. I will back Houston with the points in this one. I also like the UNDER. The Colts offensive prowess just isn't translating this season. They have played in just one of nine games that resulted in 50+ being scored. I think Indy struggles to score at will here and without that, this game should be lower than 50.