Houston at Indianapolis

These two teams opened the season in Houston and the Texans notched a huge win for their franchise. It kickstarted a 4-1 start for the Texans and halted, at least temporarily, Indy's dominance in this series. The Colts get a chance for revenge tonight. With both teams sitting at 4-2, this is a very big game. The winner takes over sole possession of first place in the AFC South and the loser drops down to third place behind the Titans. Since the arrival of Matt Schaub, the Texans have been known as a a scoring team with little defense. This season, Texans games are averaging 53.3 points per game. And of course, in the Peyton Manning era, the Colts have been a high-scoring team. This year the Colts are averaging 27.2 points per game. When these teams met in September, 58 points were produced. So most people expect another shootout here (65% of bets coming in on the OVER). But will they top this lofty total? The Texans have played to nine totals of 50+ in their franchise history. Seven of those nine games played to the UNDER. The Colts have played six of their last eight games posted at 50+ to the UNDER. The Texans, like most teams, do a better job scoring at home. Their last 14 road games have seen the UNDER prevail at a 10-3-1 mark. They have put up 30+ four times this season but they have also scored under 14 twice. The Colts have held three of their six opponents to 14 points or less this year so they have the capability to step up defensively. Indianapolis went for over 150 yards on the ground in their last game which has been a solid sign for an UNDER in their next game as they have gone 7-1 UNDER the last eight times that has happened. This game should have some intensity given the importance and intensity often spells defense. Both defenses saw these offenses just five weeks ago and NFL defenses tend to do better with familiarity. My computer matchup for this game (not an official pick) predicts an UNDER here and I agree.