Green Bay at Seattle

Here we are in the closeout game of week three, and we continue to see perception in the gambling world based on last year. If we pay attention, we see every year that what happened in previous seasons is often far from this season’s reality. But it takes people a while to adjust. Just ask fans in New England, Pittsburgh, Denver, Detroit and New Orleans. All those teams were in the playoffs last year and have losing records through three weeks. Green Bay went 15-1 a year ago. I wrote about this team last season when they were 12-0. I wrote that they were good, but not THAT good. They went on to lose to Kansas City later in the year and bowed out of the playoffs early. Yet, the perception lingers that this is a team that should be favored in nearly any and all situations. Even after the Packers lost in game one of this year, most people gave them a pass. They played the Niners after all. A week two win over Chicago solidified for most that the Packers remain an elite team. Last season a lot of Green Bay's success came from a ridiculous number of opponent turnovers (and that again is what happened last week vs. Chicago with Jay Cutler throwing four interceptions). Don't get me wrong. This is a very good team, especially on offense. Last year the Packers offense was virtually unstoppable and it is still potent, but things aren't coming as easily for them so far this season. And, the defense remains a big question mark. Seattle took what looked like a bad loss in the season opener at Arizona 20-16. That loss doesn't look the same now that Arizona is 3-0, with has a combined score of 47-24 in their two wins vs. New England and Philadelphia. Seattle proved that last week by beating Dallas here 27-7. In that game, the Cowboys ran for only 49 yards and outside of one long drive in the second quarter, the Cowboys could not move the ball on the Seahawks. Russell Wilson has been effective as the new style dual-threat NFL quarterback, rushing 12 times for 48 yards. A healthy Marshawn Lynch has 208 yards on the ground in two games. The Packers defense seems better than last year but they are the second worst at stopping the run, allowing 5.09 yards per carry. Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 13-5 ATS at home. The public is all over the Packers here at nearly eight out of every ten bets but I recommend going the other way. Take the underdog here in a winnable game. Also take the OVER. Last season, Green Bay's defense was the absolute worst in the league in yards allowed. It's improved this season a lot so far, but it's still suspect, and this total is low. The Packers have played seven of their last eight to the OVER when off an ATS win. And under Pete Carroll, Seattle is 20-9 to the OVER as an underdog. Seattle has played 20 of their last 29 overall to the OVER, including seven of their last eight after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. None of the last four games have stayed UNDER the total in this series. Play on Seattle and take the OVER.