Green Bay at San Francisco

The Green Bay Packers posted a 15-1 mark two seasons ago. They took a step backwards last year but still went 11-5. Why the reversion? Aaron Rogers is one of the best QBs in the NFL and will likely go down as an all-time great. But he isn't without issues. His problem continues to be two-fold. The Packers' offensive line is inept, and he hasn't enjoyed the support of a running game in years. While the Pack drafted Franklin and Lacey, neither appeared very effective in the preseason. Without the offensive line to run behind, I don't expect great strides from the running game, at least early on. Despite Rogers' super-human ability, the Packers slipped from 560 points in 2011-12 to 433 a year ago. It is quite possible that there is further erosion this year, unless the Packers suddenly find an offensive line and/or a running game, which is not likely to occur in week one. Especially when facing one of the league's best defenses. Last season San Francisco gave up just 15.8 points per game at home. The Niners never played to a total this high all of last year in 19 games, so game one looks a bit inflated here, especially with a team that is as good defensively as you'll find and offenses that need to shake off a bit of rust. High totals tend to be difficult to topple early in the season, so I look for this one to play UNDER the total.