Green Bay at New York

This is a buy low (Green Bay) and sell high (New York) pick. The Green Bay Packers have been hit hard by the injury bug and have been a bit overvalued in the early going. We have been fading them. Now I think the worm has turned and I like them in this spot. As long as Aaron Rodgers is standing under center, the Packers are a dangerous team, especially as an underdog. As a favorite, this team hasn't produced. But, the Packers’ last 15 games have seen them lose by no more than 3 points and that is basically a full season. That means that this team, regardless of injuries, is in every game they play, so getting a bundle here is value-laden. The Jets are a great run-stopping defense but the Packers don't run, especially since Ryan Grant went down. Green Bay passes and uses the pass as a running game. The Jets rank No. 22 in the league in defending the pass, so the Packers are well suited to play against this defense. The Jets’ defense has not been as good as last year's which ranked No. 1. This year they are good, but only ranked #12 in yards allowed. So the reputation is bigger than the actual talent, at least at this point. Under Mike McCarthy, Green Bay is 23-12 ATS on the road including 12-4 as an underdog of 7 or fewer points. The Packers are getting it done on the road at 21-10 ATS in their last 31 and I like them to keep this game close. I also like the UNDER in this game. The Pack have played UNDER in four of their last five on the road and they are 6-0 UNDER since last season on the road coming off a win. The Jets off their bye week have played to a 9-2 mark to the UNDER. I like Green Bay to cover and for the total to stay UNDER.