Green Bay at New York

You have to look hard at the OVER in Packers games given that they are 70-57 OVER since the arrival of Mike McCarthy. The fact that Aaron Rodgers is still out, and the fact that the Green Bay offense has scored just 30 total points without him in two games has held this total down. Last week's 13 points, however, was very misleading. The Packers moved the ball well, with several long drives behind Scott Tolzien who threw for just shy of 300 yards. The Packers had an INT in the end-zone, and a pair of would-be TDs negated by officials. They also turned the ball over on downs inside the Eagles' 10 yard line. The Giants are not defensive denizens like they used to be. They no longer get pressure, so Tolzien should be able to sustain drives again. After being held to a total of 7 points over two games, the Giants have topped the 20-point mark in four of their last five. And, the Packers have allowed 29 points per game on the road this season. The Giants have given up 26 per game at home and they are 19-5-2 to the OVER in their last 26 games after holding their previous opponent to 250 yards or less. Under McCarthy, the Pack are 25-14 to the OVER following a loss and 18-8 OVER after allowing 400+ yards. Play this one OVER the total.