Green Bay at New York

The sand is going to run through the hourglass on this Green Bay team at some point. They have won 15 straight games and they have an offense that is a nightmare to stop, but are they really that good? One thing for sure is that the QB is world-class and he is playing at a level few have enjoyed. The problem is that as good as Aaron Rodgers has been the defense is giving up even more. As hard as it may be to believe for an 11-0 team, the Packers have been outgained by their opponents in five of their last six games and they are barely outgaining opponents on the season at just 8 yards per game better. Those are not characteristics of an 11-0 team. Based on team stats, the Pats should be no better than 9-2 and so there is some value fading this team that is not quite as good as the perception. Irony is at work here for this one as well. It was the Giants that blew a 21-point lead vs. the Eagles that allowed the Packers into the playoffs last season, and we all know the rest of the story. Over the years Tom Coughlin has fared very well vs. unbeaten teams as his teams have gone 13-4-3 ATS when facing an unbeaten opponent. Unbeaten teams playing from Week 12 until they lose their first game are just 7-18 ATS as they become highly over-valued. The Green Bay defense is horrible statstically, coverd up by Rogers and positive turnovers. The week that balls don't bounce their way they are susceptible to losing. New York hit rock bottom last week getting embarrassed on national TV, giving up 49 points on Monday night. They've heard it all week and I expect them to come out with fire in their bellies and an "us vs. the world" mentality. Take the Giants with the points.