Green Bay at Minnesota

The Green Bay Packers have looked unstoppable on offense as they have gone for over 50 points in each of their last two games. That may not equate to an ATS win here as as teams that scored 45 points or more in two straight games have covered just 36.8% of the time in their next game in the NFL. That drops to just 27.3% if the line is greater than -7. The Packers are a different team on the road than they are at home - by a long shot. Green Bay averages 43.8 points per game at home and just a pedestrian 22.2 ppg on the road. Minnesota has a solid defense and the one thing they have been consistent in doing all season is applying pressure as they have recorded 30 sacks on the season. This is a very tough spot for Green Bay who beat a 7-2 Philadelphia team last week, and will be facing a New England team next week that will likely be 9-2 and on a seven game winning streak. The offense has not been there on the road, and this number is reflective of what the Pack have done at home. The Packers have been out-scored by 29 points on the road this season, and this is a division game vs. an opponent with revenge motivation. The Vikings are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 following a loss, and Green Bay just 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. a losing team. The Vikings are also 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. elite teams (teams winning by 10+ ppg). Take the points on Minnesota.