Green Bay at Minnesota

Green Bay's Pro Bowl QB Aaron Rodgers (24 TDs, 2 INTs) is having another brilliant campaign, but it's the improvement of the defense that has been the big story in 2019. The Packers are Top 10 in the NFL in points allowed (20.1 per game) as Blake Martinez leads the NFL with 140 tackles while fellow LB Preston Smith (11.5) and Za'Darius Smith (10) have combined for 21.5 sacks. The Packers are 8-3 UNDER the total against winning teams. They've won three in a row allowing 13, 15 and 13 points. Green Bay has also covered six of seven against winning teams and is 13-6-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points in the last game. Minnesota likes to run, but RB Dalvin Cook and backup Alexander Mattison are nursing injuries. Cook (shoulder) won't play while third-string RB Mike Boone (97 yards) figures to start. The Vikings are 11-24 ATS after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games. The defense is fifth in points allowed with the team 10-2 UNDER the total after scoring 30+ points the last game. Green Bay won the first meeting, 21-16, part of an 8-2 run UNDER when they clash, and this shapes up as another close defensive battle. Play the Packers and the UNDER.