Green Bay at Detroit

Here we are on Thanksgiving Day with the annual tradition of turkey and football, and it starts with Green Bay at Detroit. After seven weeks, the Packers were 5-2 and looking like a strong Super Bowl contender. But, that all changed when their franchise QB Aaron Rodgers went down. The Packers have since gone 0-3-1 straight-up and 0-4 ATS. Rodgers is worth about 10 points in my opinion. It's amazing how one player can make so much difference, but in the case of the Packers they are a winless team without. The Packers have averaged 18 points per game in the four games without Rodgers, and three of those were at home where they traditionally score a lot more. Detroit enters off a tough loss, but at 6-5 are still tied for first place for the division lead with the Bears. The Lions have been awful on Thanksgiving Day at home for several years now, but most of that was because they were awful in general. When they have been a favorite they are 5-2 ATS since 1989. The Lions have come a long way since finishing last season 0-8. And they know they need this game. They know this is their best chance to put a beat down on a hated rival and exact revenge. Detroit is 23-10 ATS in their last 33 home games when looking to exact revenge for a same season loss. This year it looks like the Packers will be challenging that awful finish, or at least they will until Rodgers comes back. Until then, this is a bad football team, and the Lions seem to be energized off a good offensive showing in their previous game. The Lions are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 after gaining over 350 yards in their last one. The Lions are the pick. Also take the UNDER here to this high total. Green Bay simply doesn't have the offense right now to justify this. Yes, Matthew Stafford and Megatron can light it up. But, consider that this season Green Bay is a perfect 6-0 UNDER when facing teams proficient passing attacks (teams that pass for 235+ yards per game). The Pack have played to a 10-1 mark to the UNDER in their last 11 after gaining 150+ on the ground in their previous game. The last four here have come in UNDER the total as well. Make the play on Detroit and the UNDER.