Green Bay at Detroit

The Packers won 15 games last season. This year didn't start so well. After a heartbreaking loss in Seattle that left them 1-2, they went to Indianapolis and blew a big lead to fall to 2-3. They have righted the ship since then as Aaron Rodgers has found his groove again. This is however a different Green Bay team than last year. A year ago they simply outscored everyone and didn't play much defense. This season the offense is not as precise, and the defense is much better, so the total here looks to be on the high side. The Packers are off a much-needed bye, getting Nelson, Starks and Kuhn back. Matt Stafford has been erratic this year. While the Lions appeared to be on the upswing last season, they did not beat a team with a winning record all year. This year they have beaten just one. The Lions defense’ is also better than a year ago when they allowed 27 points or more to eight of their last nine opponents. This year just two teams have topped the 27-point mark against them. The bottom line here is that each offense is not as potent as they were a year ago, while each defense is playing at a higher level. Last year these teams played to a total of 55 in Detroit, and with the total just about a FG less here I think it is still too high. In the late season (week 11 on), underdogs of more than a field goal that are off a road loss win just 25.7% of the time (123-355 since 1990). Detroit is just 2-8 straight-up since last season when facing a great quarterback (one that completes 61%+ of his passes). Dating back to 2009, they are 1-11 straight-up vs. QBs that complete 64% or better. Aaaron Rodgers owns a career 65.6% rate (67% this season). Under Jim Schwartz, the Lions are just 8-28 as an underdog. This game could be close, and likely lower scoring than expected. Take the Pack on the moneyline and the UNDER.