Green Bay at Detroit

Green Bay is off a shutout loss to the great Minnesota defense, but they scored 28, 26, 27, and 24 points the previous four. The team has covered three of the last five games, including a 31-28 loss at Pittsburgh as a +14 dog behind backup QB Brett Hundley. There are a slew of players who impressed last week playing for jobs, including WR Michael Clark, RB Devante Mays, along with young defenders in linebacker Reggie Gilbert and cornerback Lenzy Pipkins. Detroit is favored, but has a losing home record. NFL favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like the Lions, who have a winning percentage between 51-60% when facing a losing team, are 46-76 ATS. Detroit had a playoff spot to play for last week and looked lifeless in a 26-17 loss at Cincinnati. The Lions are last in the NFL in rushing offense at just 78 yards per game, and QB Matt Stafford has had to throw too often, sacked 45 times. The Lions just placed offensive guard Don Barclay on injured reserve with a concussion. He's the third offensive lineman for the Lions to finish a game this year and then appear on the injury report with a concussion, joining T.J. Lang and Travis Swanson. Detroit is 10-2 UNDER the total against losing teams. Green Bay is 16-7 ATS in this divisional rivalry, including 8-3 ATS at Detroit, so back the dog in a low-scoring battle. Play Green Bay and the UNDER.