Green Bay at Detroit

At 2-10, the Lions don't appear to have progressed as much as people thought they would this season. Granted, the wins aren't there yet, but this team has been much better than their win/loss record indicates. They have played tough against some pretty good teams, losing by just 4 at home to the Bears, 3 to the Jets in overtime and by 3 to the Eagles. They also played the Bears to within 5 on the road and this same Green Bay team to within 2. When it all is said and done this team is playing well above the number at 8-3 ATS on the season and, as a dog of 6.5 or more, they are 4-1 ATS on the season. At home they are 5-1 ATS. Notice a trend? The Packers are a good offense but that not so much on the road. Green Bay is putting up 31.5 ppg at Lambeau, but when they take to the road those numbers get reduced to 19 ppg. That is almost a two TD difference! The Lions are at their best vs. winning teams where they are a very profitable 7-1 ATS in their last eight. The Packers lack of scoring on the road is going to make the big number here hard to topple as all six of their road games have played UNDER. Also, over the past two seasons the Pack are 8-0 UNDER on the road coming off a home win. I like Detroit and the UNDER in this one.