Green Bay at Detroit

Folks are impressed with the Detroit Lions three-game win streak, but let's hold the phone for a moment. They tried to give the game to the Packers three weeks ago, and the offense has scored just 18 points in two of the last three games. After all, the Lions are still 4-7 on the season, ranked #23 in yards on offense, #26 in points (20.9 points per game) and #28 defensively in points allowed (26.2 ppg). This is simply a bad football team. Detroit is a .500 home team and faces a Green Bay squad with a winning record overall and on the road. The Packers are 40-19 ATS in their last 59 against the NFC North. Reigning MVP QB Aaron Rodgers has nine touchdowns versus two interceptions the last four games, which included a 30-13 rout at Minnesota in a big divisional showdown. Green Bay is enjoying the re-emergence of running back Eddie Lacy, who has registered back-to-back 100-yard games. Green Bay's defense is #5 in the NFL in points allowed. Rodgers is 10-3 with 24 TDs and five interceptions in his last 13 meetings versus the Lions, with Detroit on a 6-13 ATS run against the Pack. Under head coach Mike McCarthy, the Packers are 44-15 straight-up in division games. Detroit hasn't swept the Packers since the 1991 season, and they won't in 2015 against a motivated team looking to atone for an embarrassing loss. Take Green Bay on the moneyline. Also take the OVER. This total is set low. The Lions are allowing 26.2 points per game while scoring nearly 25 per game at home. Green Bay is putting up a respectable 23.8 per game, but we all know the ceiling with Aaron Rodgers is significantly higher. In the McCarthy era, the Packers are 90-74 to the OVER, including 69-55 OVER vs. conference opponents and 32-19 when coming off a loss. Take the Packers and the OVER in this one.