Last week's outcomes were a great setup for this game. One of the top two teams in the league in my book (Cincinnati) got pummeled as a favorite while a really bad team (Green Bay) put up a relatively good showing for the third straight week. Green Bay didn't win but lots of people are giving them credit for the game in which Minnesota won on a last second field goal. But wait, the Pack lost to Minnesota. Minnesota is terrible this year and a win doesn't change that. Heck, maybe we should go against Minny this week (see below). The fact is that the talent difference in this game is huge. Brett Favre remains a tough guy with talent but his skills have obviously deteriorated. This isn't about Favre, though, as the bigger issue is what surrounds him. The Packers have lost two of their top three receivers and their starting running back. And any defense that squanders a 17-0 lead has its issues. Cincinnati's loss wasn't as bad as the final score would indicate. Carson Palmer through two picks within a few minutes in the third quarter which allowed Pitt to blow a close game wide open. In this one, I expect things to return to normal - that is - Cincinnati playing like a Super Bowl team and Green Bay playing like a 1-5 team. How do the desimated Packers get up for this one after that gut-wrenching loss last week? They are 1-5 and with their injuries, have about ZERO hope of winning this. And they know it. I suspect that Green Bay's spirit is crushed and they may lay down in this one, especially if Cincinnati jumps out to an early lead. This one could get very ugly. Two stars on the Bengals to bounce back in a huge way.
This pick was released to clients on July 12, 2012 at 6:18PM ET.
NFL
Green Bay at Cincinnati
October 30, 2005
1:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Cincinnati -9 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
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