Green Bay at Chicago

The Packers have rolled through their first two games, having looked all the part of a Super Bowl contender. Behind the big arm of Aaron Rodgers, this team has gotten the reputation as a big-time offense. The reputation is well deserved. Through two games, the Packers have averaged 30.5 points per game. That is a big number for sure. But when you look a bit deeper at the offensive numbers for this team, we gain some hidden insight. The Green Bay offense is ranked No. 1 in points per game, but they sit at No. 16 in yards gained (322) - right in the middle of the pack (no pun intended). That puts the Packers at 10.6 yards per point, a number which is simply unsustainable. Yes, this offense will continue to score, but it's unlikely to come at the pace at which we have seen thus far. What goes unnoticed with all the hoopla surrounding the Packers offense is the fact that they finished last season No. 2 in yards allowed, trailing only the Jets (a team that gets hyped on defense every week). This season thus far Green Bay is again ranked No. 2 in the league in yards allowed behind Baltimore, another team that garners all the press about defense. But due to names like Rodgers, Driver, Jennings and Finley, seldom is a lead-in written about the Packers defense. So it's no wonder the public likes the Packers and the OVER here. The Bears have a defense that is under the radar, sitting in the No. 7 position in yards allowed per game. Lovie Smith and the Bears know the key to winning this game is to contain Rodgers and I believe their gameplan will be thusly focused. The public hears the stuffed suits talking offense and the oddsmakers know their clients (love offense and OVERs), so this total gets pushed north. This is a hard-fought divisional matchup and past scores have reflected that. Last year these teams played games in which 35 and 36 total points were scored. These teams have met 12 times since 2004 and only one of those twelve games would have topped this total (barely, by a point)! With both teams unbeaten, this one should bring the requisite intensity for another low-scoring affair. The Bears have been 24-9-1 to the UNDER as a dog of 3 or less and 14-4 as a home dog! Under Lovie Smith, the Bears are 31-16 UNDER as an underdog. My computer matchup likes Green Bay to win 26-20. I believe the score will actually fall below the total and my pick tonight is on the UNDER.