Green Bay at Chicago

The Green Bay Packers will get an emotional lift as QB Aaron Rodgers returns for this critical game. That may not be as good as it sounds, however, as he has not played in eight weeks and a lot of what the Packers do is based on timing. The other story is the fact that the Bears' run defense is as bad as it gets. The Packers key man in the backfield besides Rodgers is Eddie Lacey, and he left the game last week after aggravating an already tender ankle. He will likely be limited here. James Starks is a good alternative, and I think the Packers will try to win this one on the ground to limit Rodgers from taking too many risk or hits as they try to exploit the Bears' porous run-stop unit. The Bears took a haymaker last week vs. Philly, scoring just 11 points while allowing 54. In an effort to limit the exposure of their defense, the Bears may run the ball a lot here. This series has long been physical and defensive, as the last 16 meetings have seen 13 play UNDER the total, with the last six in Chi-Town doing so. Go with the UNDER.