Green Bay at Chicago

The Packers have positioned themselves to be a wildcard playoff entry in the NFC thanks to four straight wins. How are they doing it? Certainly Aaron Rodgers is playing well, and the defense has been stout, especially against the run. But, this has as much to do about luck as skill. The Packers are +18 in the turnover battle, which makes it so much easier to win when you’re getting about +1.5 per game. During their recent win streak they have had the turnover edge in every game as the four opponents handed the ball to the Packers 13 times! The combined record of the four teams they bear is 21-27, with only one of those four teams owning a winning record. So, what looks like a nice, powerful late-season run doesn't look so hot once you get an average of 3.25 turnovers per game against mediocre competition. The Bears’ Jay Cutler has unfortunately been a turnover machine himself. He has been intercepted 20 times already this season. The good news for the Bears is that they have been a better team at home (4-2) than the Packers have been on the road (3-2) and the big reason is Cutler. He has thrown a total of 17 interceptions on the road, but just three at home, and one of those was a Hail Mary before the end of the half. So, he has done a much better job of ball security at home. The Bears had lost four straight and desperately needed a win last week, even if it was St. Louis just to get the mental edge back. This is a big rivalry and the Bears have been in every game here but one this year, and have only lost two games in the last 2+ years here by more than four points. Given the rivalry and the spoiler opportunity, the Bears won't be mailing this one in and with Cutler taking care of the ball at home, I like Chicago here plus the points.