Green Bay at Baltimore

Tough side to call here as I really don't want to be betting on either of these two teams. Baltimore has been terrible and how Kyle Boller STILL has a job is way beyond me. I've lost a lot of respect for Brian Billick through his hardheadedness on this matter. I mean is it not obvious to 99.99% of the world's population that Boller does not have what it takes to start at QB in the NFL? On the flipside, Green Bay is decimated by injuries and Brett Favre is playing very poorly. Could Green Bay win? Sure. My computer simulation actually does predict a Green Bay upset. But, the Pack are 1-6 SU away from Lambeau this season and favorites continue to dominate this season, especially on Sunday and Monday Nights. Brett could easily "throw" this one away. Instead, we'll turn our attention to the total. The linesmakers are expecting a 19-15 game based on their 34 point total with the Ravens favored by 3.5 points. I do think that total is about right but maybe a bit high. Let's look at this total numerially in four different ways. We'll look at each team independently and then how each has performed against their competition in the first 13 games. (1) Baltimore is scoring 12.8 per game at home and allowing 13.2 (total of 26). (2) Green Bay is scoring 17.1 and allowing 22.3 on the road (39.4). Baltimore is scoring 5.7 points per game less than their opponents are allowing on average. So GB's 22.3 minus 5.7 equals 16.6. Balto is allowing 1.4 points less than their opponents score on average. So GB's 17.1 minus 1.4 equals 15.7. (3) So, 16.6 + 15.7 gets us 32.3 as a potential total. Finally, Green Bay is scoring 0.2 points per game more than their opponents are allowing on average and giving up 3.4 points more than their opponents are scoring on average. So, that would give us a Green Bay PF of 13.4 (13.2 plus 0.2) and PA of 16.2 (12.8 plus 3.4). So our final look (4) would indicate a final score of 13.4 + 16.2 = 29.6. The average of all four of these (26, 39.4, 32.3, 29.6) equals 31.8. And, only one of the four ways of looking at the score is higher than the posted total of 34. Baltimore has gone UNDER 10 out of 13 games so far this season including a perfect 6-0 UNDER at home. In games with an ultra-low total like this one (34 or less), Baltimore is 5-1 UNDER. Green Bay obviously scores and allows more points than Baltimore so we haven't seen them in many games with low totals this season. They were only involved in one game with a total under 35 and that was against Chicago two weeks ago. The total was posted at 31.5 and Chicago shut down the Pack as only 26 points were scored. In all games with totals under 40 points, Green Bay is 4-0 UNDER. Both of these offenses are bad and Baltimore's defense can be very good (held 3 of last 4 opponents to under 16 points). Unless there is something fluky like a kick return TD or a couple of defensive touchdowns, I look for this total to go UNDER for 3 stars.