Green Bay at Atlanta

The Atlanta Falcons are the best team in the NFC, at least as measured by record (8-2). Their offense is ranked#6 in total yards, but when comparing their stats offensively to the defenses they have played, they are exactly average, gaining 5.4 yards a play vs teams allowing 5.4 yards a play. They will find the going more difficult against a solid Green Bay defense that, with 28 sacks, gets pressure on the QB and has allowed just two runners over 100 yards since week two. This Packers defense has allowed a total of ten points in their last three games. The Green Bay offense is good, but down a tick from a year ago without running back Ryan Grant to balance the attack and. On the road their offensive efficiency drops and as a result, their last five road games have all gone UNDER. The Falcons have a long history of UNDERs after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game as they have followed with a 33-16-2 mark to the UNDER in their last 51. I like the UNDER in this one.