Green Bay at Arizona

The Green Bay Packers are known for their offense with Aaron Rodgers leading the way to an offense that scored 29 points per game this season (39 per game over their last three). But, their true signature this season has been on the defensive side. Sure, the Packers have had goodsuccess offensively, but it is the defense that ranks on top of the league producing +1.5 turnovers per game and ranking No. 1 against the run in both yards per carry and yards per game. In their final six games of the season, the Pack allowed more than 14 points just one time. In the second half of the season, they held Dallas to 7 points, Baltimore to 14 and Arizona to 7. The Cardinals are also known as an offensive team behind Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin. But, they allow a below league average of 20 points per game. Their offense meanwhile has been very mediocre this year, scoring only 21.7 points per game at home. You can bet that after giving up 33 to this Packers team a week ago, the Cards have spent the week focusing on how to change that here. They simply won't play the same and a similar outcome is not what you should expect. What isn't visible in the overall defensive numbers is the fact that the Cards are a top 10 defense in terms of opponents QB rating against them. Outside of the season finale vs. this same Green Bay team where the Cards rested players and played passionless in a meaningless game, they have faced three good offenses since week two. They held the Titans to 20, the Giants to 17 and the Vikings to 17. The Packers held half of the teams on their schedule to 14 points or less and ten to 17 or less. The Cards come into this one having played six of their last seven overall to the UNDER. Last year’s team topped 30 on 10 different occasions, while this year just six times. It is doubtful they get to 30 in this one and this season, when they have failed to get to 30, the UNDER is 9-1. I like this one to stay UNDER the posted total.