Detroit at New England

The New England Patriots appeared to be in decline in the early going as they started the season just 2-2. Tom Brady looked suddenly older, and the offense was generating just 20 points per game. That has proven to be just a little tailspin as the Pats have emerged over the last six weeks to go 6-0, beating Denver and Indianapolis in back-to-back games. After throwing just four TD passes in the first four games, Tom Brady has thrown for 20 in the last six games, and that offense that went for 20 ppg early has been averaging 40.8 ppg since. The defense has not allowed more than 25 points in any of the six games, despite playing Denver and Indianapolis who scored 20 and 21, respectively. Detroit comes in at 7-3 and has played great on defense, but that hasn't mattered to New England lately. The problem here for Detroit is an offense that has not scored more than 24 points since their opening game, and just 17 ppg in their last nine. The Lions' last three wins have come by a total of 6 points, and last week they did not find the end-zone. New England is now 71-31-2 ATS following a game where they gained more than 350 yards. Detroit is just 2-11 ATS the past three seasons vs. teams with great QBs (teams like NE that complete 64%+). This line of 7 is a sweet spot for the Patriots under Bill Belichick. During his tenure, the Pats are 63-42 ATS to a line of -3.5 to -9.5 and 27-14 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Lay the points on New England.