Detroit at Kansas City

The Detroit Lions finally turned a corner with a winning record last year. They were one of only five NFC teams that had a positive point differential (+26). The offense was fourth in total yards behind QB Jared Goff (29 TDs, 7 INTs), Top 11 in both rushing and passing, plus fifth in points (26.6 per game). The Lions are on a 23-11 spread run, including 20-9 ATS as an underdog. Kansas City is the marquee public team, and has been overvalued, failing to cover seven straight home games in the first half of the season. For this opener, they'll be without two of their best players in All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones and All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce (knee). In 2023, Kelce was eighth in the NFL in receiving yards (1,338), second in TDs (12), and third in receptions (110). The Chiefs are on a 6-10-1 ATS spread run, including 4-7-1 as chalk of -5 points or higher. And NFL favorites that had a 75% winning percentage or higher while winning six or more of their final eight in the previous year are 24-55 ATS in the first month of the new campaign versus teams that are off winning seasons. Play Detroit.