Detroit at Indianapolis

Many don't get to see this Lions team play that much, because they don't win and obviously don't get the TV exposure that other teams get. What most of the country did see was the beating they took on their home field Thanksgiving Day. The Lions started 6-2 last season, and then finished 1-7. Amazingly they went 4-0 in the preseason, but they are winless through 13 games on the season, running their string to 1-20 in their last 21 regular season games. The lone win came vs. the Chiefs, who incidently are on a 2-20 run themselves. So how can the winless Lions not get absolutely crushed by Peyton Manning and the "mighty" Indianapolis Colts? Seems easy, right? Let's dig. The Lions might not be winning, but they have been competitive against the good teams. They are 5-1 ATS this season as a double-digit dog, and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a double digit dog. So what most saw on Thanksgiving Day is the only time they have not been competitive in this situation, and it has driven the line up for this one. The Colts have won six straight games now, but how impressive were these wins, reallly? Five of the wins have come by 6 points or less. And that becomes much more concerning when you realize that the last four wins have come against teams with a combined record of 16-36 (Houston, San Diego, Cleveland, Cincinnati). The Colts aren't the team they have been in the past but the public is having a hard time admitting this. The six-game win streak has given them a (false) reason to believe. Pointspreads in this range are reserved for dominating teams that have a big offense and the Colts have not been dominating and their offense is not great this season. It is asking a lot of a team to cover 17 with an offense that has averaged just 22.5 ppg on the season and is ranked closer to the bottom of the league at #20, than they are to the top. To put this offense in perspective, the Colts have been held under 24 points eight times this season, meaning if any of those games were vs. the Lions, if the Lions scored 7, which they have in every game this season, the Colts would not cover. The fact is the Lions have gotten to 16 points in eight games, and the Colts would need 34 to topple the line, a total they have achieved just once all season. Too many points here, and I'm grabbing the bundle of points.