Detroit at Green Bay

Something is not right in Green Bay. Meanwhile, Detroit didn't quit for new coach Dan Campbell last week, making a second-half run in a 41-33 loss to San Francisco. They are a big dog here but I think they will continue to play hard as the new coaching staff and the new players want to keep their jobs, especially in a division game. The offense rolled up 430 yards last week with new QB Jared Goff. NFL road underdogs like the Lions that allowed 230-plus passing yards the previous season are 31-8 ATS after allowing 8+ passing yards per attempt in the last game. Green Bay comes home after getting mauled in the opener by the Saints, 38-3. NFL favorites are 15-45 ATS after a game where they had a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Often overvalued Green Bay is just 1-7 against the spread versus the Lions, including Detroit's last Monday night appearance, a 23-22 game at Lambeau Field in 2019. This is a rivalry game that should be closer than this line indicates. Play Detroit on the light side for a half-unit, to lock in the winning week either way.