Detroit at Cincinnati

The Bengals appear to have given up. After a poor showing in their opener vs. Baltimore, the Bengals competed in their next 11 games, outscoring their opponents. But now they have dropped two straight by almost identical scores of 7-33 and 7-34. As a result, they are now 5-point dogs at home to a mediocre team. I believe this line is off. Detroit allows 25 points per game on the road and their defense cannot stop anyone, allowing 362 yards per game. Meanwhile Cincinnati allows just 20.6 per game at home. The Bengals struggle offensively, but these are precisely the teams that the Lions struggle against. Detroit is just 30-52-4 ATS (36.6%) in their last 86 games vs. teams like Cincy that average 17 or fewer points per game. The Lions are also 37-53-2 ATS in their last 92 games as chalk in this range (-3.5 to -10.5). As a road favorite of any size, Detroit is just 14-25-1 ATS. Is Detroit the better team? Yes, but they are on the road in a bad spot, laying too many points. Take the Bengals here.