Detroit at Chicago

Chicago is favored but a mess, riding a four-game skid. QB Mitch Trubisky (five TDs, three picks) had TVs turned off this week at the Bears practice facility as the negativity is getting to him. The Bears are 25-43 ATS against teams that average 6+ yards per play, as well as 104-77 OVER the total as chalk. In town comes a Detroit team with a strong offense, fifth in the NFL in total yards (391.3 pg), third in passing (295.3 pg) behind QB Matt Stafford (19 TDs, five INTs). The Lions are 10-3-1 ATS against losing teams, plus 8-3-1 ATS on natural grass. They are also 35-17 OVER the total after allowing 150+ yards rushing in their previous game. Back the dog in a high scoring tilt. Take Detroit and play the OVER.