Detroit at Baltimore

The Baltimore Ravens simply haven't been the same defensive giant they were a year ago, and the offense has really struggled of late. Put it all together and we have a team here that is 3-6 in their last nine games. Yet, they are a two-TD favorite? Yes, I know it's the Lions, but they were a 14-point dog at Green Bay who just beat the Ravens by 13, and after going 3-6 and losing to the Pack by two TDs, the oddsmakers are saying that they are still on equal footing to a team like Green Bay? I’m not buying it. The Lions should do a better job of ball control here with Daunte Culpepper at QB as he does not throw interceptions at the rate of rookie Matthew Stafford (20 INTs in 10 games). It has been a tougher go the second time around for Joe Flacco. After a phenomenal rookie season, his QB rating is lower, and he has already thrown more INTs this year than all of last season. The Ravens own just two wins by this amount in the last nine weeks and an offense that was producing a lot of points has sharply declined. This was a team averaging 28.4 points per game through their first seven games but in their last five, just 15.2 ppg. That is a drop-off of almost two TDs per game and they’re being asked to cover two TDs here. Detroit is 22-10 ATS in their last 32 road games following a double-digit defeat. They are also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games following back-to-back offensive stinkers (14 or less points scored).  The value goes to the Lions, so I will take them with the bundle of points here.