Detroit at Arizona

There are not many times in the modern day NFL where you see totals in the low 40 range. That's because the NFL has become a passing league, which typically makes for a longer game and more scoring. Neither of these two teams have much of a running attack, and both are elite against the run, so I would expect the ball to be in the air an awful lot here. Detroit has a strong defense, but no one has been able to slow down Arizona's scoring this season. The Cardinals have been very consistent of late, scoring 24+ in each of their last five games. Matthew Stafford has started 45 games in his career vs. teams that allow 6.1 to 8.1 yards per pass attempt, and the total combined points in those games has been 50.5. Teams that struggle running typically turn to the air. When you have a team that ran for less than 50 yards last game, matched up with one that ran for less than 75 yards in their last game, the result has been 69-31 to the OVER in the last 100 occurrences. Arizona is 41-18 to the OVER after allowing 14 points or less in their previous game. This total is just too low, so take the OVER.