This pick was released to clients on July 30, 2012 at 6:22PM ET.
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Denver at New England

September 24, 2006
img8:15 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Mike Shanahan has dug himself a nice little hole that is going to be tough to get out of. He (against the better judgement of just about everyone), put his confidence in Jake Plummer. He put all his eggs in that basket this season as there is no viable backup. And, that basket has some pretty big holes. While a team like Tennessee can throw in the rookie QB and prepare for next year, Denver fans were expecting a Super Bowl run this year. If Jake continues to perform poorly, what is Shanahan to do? I dunno. Jake never did well in Arizona. He had one good season last year in Denver but one thing is obvious - his mental toughness is lacking. He makes too many mistakes and if pressure is on, he's horrible. Last year Denver's running game built up big leads and Jake can protect them. But put the game on his shoulders and you are playing with fire. That being said, this team getting a full touchdown is a gift. I think the public is overreacting to Denver's poor start and the Broncos will not just lay down. The line has moved from -6 to -7 which is key. Denver is a cornered animal right now. They can't afford to go down 1-2. Shanahan will find a way to get the runnning game going this week. My computer simulation for this game backs up what my gut is telling me - that the line is off by a couple of points. Mike Shanahan gameplans well against Tom Brady as he's just 1-4 vs. Denver as compared to 69-17 vs. all other opponents. Shanahan has put his verbal support behind Jake so I expect him to play a bit better here and for the Broncos to find a way to keep this close. They may not win but I see a tight game at the very least.

2 units on Denver +7 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)
Result:
WIN
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