Denver at New England

Brady vs. Manning. It doesn't get much better than this. If the line stands in this game, the New England Patriots will take the field as an underdog for the second consecutive week. That has not happened since the 2006 season, and that was a meaningless week 17 game. Prior to that this hasn't happened since 2003. That shows you that even though the Pats are 7-3 on the season, they are simply not the same dominating team of years past. Denver has taken over that role in the AFC, as the 9-1 Broncos knocked Kansas City from the unbeaten ranks last week, winning from wire to wire. I expect this one to be a shootout, as Denver and New England have trouble defending the pass, and that is the weakness of both defenses. New England had a lot of offensive injuries to key players early in the season, but have a lot back. After scoring just 19 points per game in their first five games, the Pats have scored 31.4 ppg in their last five. The problem is that is not enough vs. a Denver team that is averaging 39.8 ppg. Denver put up 27 last week vs. the "vaunted" KC defense and that was their lowest total of the season. In the end, there will be a lot of scoring from both teams but I think Denver is going to be the team that gets more stops. The Broncos are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games, and they have also played to a 22-5 mark to the OVER in their last 27 vs. a winning team. Since the arrival of Peyton Manning, Denver is 16-5 ATS as a favorite. Under John Fox, the Broncos are 29-14 OVER including 18-9 OVER as a favorite and 8-1 OVER on turf. New England is 0-5 ATS in their last five when following a game where they passed for less than 250 yards. The Patriots are 40-18-1 to the OVER in their last 59 on field turf. This shootout goes to the road team. Take Denver and the OVER.