Denver at Minnesota

Minnesota is good but not as good as their 5-0 record and 30-17 average score indicates. Four of their wins have come against teams with losing records (Detroit, Chicago Atlanta and SF) and they’ve gotten a lot of lucky bounces (league-high +10 turnover differential). Denver is without starter Jake Plummer again this week but Steve Beuerlein is an able-bodied backup. Even with Plummer in there, Denver’s pass offense was mediocre at best. With Clinton Portis in the backfield, the Ponies will run the ball enough to take the pressure off Beuerlein. Denver’s defense, #2 in the league, should be able to contain Randy Moss and the rest of the Vikings offense. Minny has covered every game this year and are due for a fall. In fact, teams that are perfect ATS after week 5 typically lose a game ATS very soon thereafter. Also, visiting dogs fare well against teams off a bye.