Denver at Los Angeles

This has been a very interesting NFL season thus far. Favorites (especially big ones) have been hitting at a very abnormal rate. Some winning teams from last season that were supposed to be winning again are struggling (see the winless Tennessee Titans). And, teams that were supposed to be awful are doing well (see the undefeated Denver Broncos). The Broncos allowed 28 points per game last season, but have allowed just 43 in five games thus far in 2009! We were on the Broncos last week and they came through for us. It was Denver's second straight impressive home win over good teams in Dallas and New England. It was very rare to see a 5-0 team as a home dog last week and Denver made their doubters pay again. Now despite an undefeated record and the top-rated defense in the league, they are again posted as an underdog. This time I feel the oddsmakers are right as I feel Denver is due for a fall. It will be a most difficult task to summon the energy tonight after two huge emotional wins. Kyle Orton has been mistake-free thus far but that won't keep up forever. The Broncos must now go on the road in a very hostile environment to face a Chargers team that has had two weeks to prepare, and is in need of a win. The Chargers are a fickle team. They seem to play down to the level of bad teams, and up to the level of good teams. They are a hard team to study on raw statistics alone. But, they are a much easier team to measure in certain spots. One of which is when they are a home favorite of 3.5-10 points, where they shine entering here with an amazing 20-3 ATS mark since 2003 agaisnt AFC teams. When you put them at home as a favorite from 3.5-10 they are now 14-0 ATS since the 2003-‘04 season in conference games. They are also 8-0 ATS against division opponents. This is a big game for San Diego because if they fall to 2-3 and Denver goes to 6-0, the chances of catching Denver is very slim. But, a win puts them within one game. The Broncos have done most of their work at home as they beat the Raiders on the road, and won on a fluke play at Cincinnati to turn a sure loss into a win. So, this by far will be their biggest test to date on the road. As I wrote last week in picking Denver, I feel there performance is not a fluke. They are a much better team than anyone thought going into the season. They may very well put up a good fight here and if they are the beneficiary of a turnover advantage, they will be a threat to win this game. Laying 3.5 points in this kind of game makes me nervous so I am going with the Chargers on the moneyline, feeling they have a good shot at winning the game outright. In fact, road underdogs that are coming off an upset home win are just 86-288 (23%) straight-up over the past 25 years including 0-2 this season and 6-26 over the past three seasons. Take 'em minus the points if you want but I am going Chargers on the moneyline.