Denver at Los Angeles

The last game of the NFL regular season will be a virtual playoff matchup between the Broncos and the Chargers. The Chargers looked dead in the water at 4-8 through 12 games, but three straight wins combined with terrible play by Denver (against the Raiders and Bills at home no less), results in this game being played for the AFC West Title. The Broncos have worn the overrated banner all season long. The perception that this team was somehow good was created when Jay Cutler opened the season leading the Broncos to 38 ppg and a 3-0 record. Cutler had thrown for eight TD passes and 308 yards per game in those first three games. The truth was that even then, Denver was severely overrated. Their only convincing win of the three was vs. lowly Oakland. Ed Hoculi handed them an undeserved win vs. San Diego in game two, and they squeaked by New Orleans in game three with a late field goal to win by 2 points. That 308 yard average by Cutler would only be reached four times in the next 11 games. At the time, he had a 113.4 QB rating. The last 12 games would see Cutler not complete a single game with a rating that high. After the opening three games throwing eight TDs, the next 12 saw him throw just 16 more. The problem with those 16 TDs is that they came with 14 INTs. The 38 ppg offense was reduced to an offense that has averaged 19.6 ppg in their last 12 games. That would rank No. 25 in the NFL in points scored per game. The Chargers have played to a 7-3-1 record to the UNDER in their last 11 weeks. And, this team has not faced a total of greater than 48.5 points the entire season! They just haven't been great on either side of the ball, but good on both sides of the ball. Totals in the 50s should be reserved for teams with big, consistent offenses and neither of these teams has demonstrated that this season. I like this one to go UNDER the total.