This pick was released to clients on July 30, 2012 at 10:44PM ET.
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Denver at Los Angeles

December 10, 2006
img4:15 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Everyone loves San Diego, and the public likes teams that can score. San Diego has that Superbowl look about them as they have rattled off six straight wins. We believe in them, don't get us wrong. But, this is not a spot to be laying over a TD. Denver looked to have the best defense in the league early on, but has been more like a middle of the pack team recently. We have taken our shots at Denver as we always felt Jake Plummer was a bad QB. Jake is gone and now it's Jay Cutler. Cutler had a rough go of it in his first outing so now everyone is jumping on the Chargers in this game. But, this is a lot of points to be laying in a division game, especially when both teams have a winning record coming in this late in the season. It is a much bigger game for Denver as they are fighting for their playoff lives. They cannot afford to lose their third in four games. Because of the San Dieog offensive juggernaut, no one seems to notice how much San Diego has slid on defense. They opened the season holding opponents to just 11 ppg over the first five games, but since have been giving up 26 ppg. That is over 2 TD's a game more! It is why they have not been covering games, as they have been able to cover just two in the past five weeks. They won all five straight up so the hype machine has built. But in those last five games we have seen them win by no more than 8 points against anyone. Denver has a streak going of 27 regular season games in a row of not losing by double digits, so this line and the fact it is a division game featuring two teams with winning records, is simply too high. San Diego has had the luxury of a very soft schedule, as they have only played four teams with a winning record, and have lost two of them. They have not won by more than 8 in the other two. Denver is officially down and out in the minds of the betting public and that can only mean one thing. We will take Denver as this line is way too high.

3 units on Denver +7.5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)
Result:
LOSS
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