Denver at Kansas City

Denver started the year looking like they had the best defense in the entire NFL, allowing two touchdowns in the first 6 games. Kansas City got off to a poor start at 0-2, but have quietly gone 6-2 since. They have Trent Green back, and last week he needed to throw just 10 passes in a win versus Oakland. This Denver team that started off so well defensively, really has gotten exposed since for what they are - average. They suddenly have given up more yards on the year than they have gained! It serves testiment to an offense that has struggled, and a defense that simply isn't as good as first thought. They were outgained by the Steelers 403-221 but won by virtue of 6 turnovers. They were +1 last week to San Diego, and still lost the game by 8 points. The Chiefs, prior to playing well, lost the turnover battle on the road at Denver and still managed an OT game, before losing by a field goal. It is hard to believe that this game is considered a toss-up, with the line opening at Denver -1, and has moved to pick'em even with the public backing Denver. San Francisco, San Diego and Seattle have all left here with losses. Kansas City over the years in pick-em games, or as a dog have been winners ATS over 70% of the time. In late season play, the Chiefs are 8-1 ATS the past two seasons at home. We like them in this spot with revenge, at home on Thanksgiving night, which will serve as a novelty, much the same as the early days of Monday Night Football when the home teams had an overwhelming advantage. Denver is in a bad psychological state - having believed all the early season hype and now dropping two straight and giving up 26 ppg in their last four. These teams are actually pretty evenly matched and KC has the huge homefield advantage.