This pick was released to clients on December 29, 2023 at 10:25AM ET.
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Denver at Kansas City

January 1, 2023
img1:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick

Earlier this week I read a sports betting analyst say that things were so bad in Denver that you should not bet them at any price. As soon as I read that, I knew I had to back the Broncos this week. Denver fired Nathaniel Hackett as the season has become a disaster and hired Jerry Rosburg as the interim coach for the final two games. Teams usually respond well to a new coach especially in his first game as the players want to make a good impression and also get the feeling of a new lease on life. Kansas City currently is the No. 2 seed in the AFC and it could gain the top seed by winning its last two with Buffalo losing at least once. The Chiefs also have to watch out for Cincinnati, who would hold the tiebreaker. The Chiefs have been a money burner with a 2-7-1 ATS record their past 10 games although they did cover against Seattle 24-10 on Saturday. The Broncos had covered the number three straight before getting humiliated 51-14 by Las Vegas. The Chiefs barely won the first meeting 34-28 on Dec. 11 and Russell Wilson threw for 247 yards and three touchdowns in that game. Denver is 16-5 ATS its past 21 games after scoring fewer than 15 points its previous game and the Chiefs are 1-6-1 ATS their past eight home games. The Broncos are 40-17-1 UNDER versus AFC teams and 19-7 UNDER their past 26 games overall. Kansas City has gone UNDER five straight home games. Teams that were embarrassed the previous game tend to come out focused the next game. This line is shaded because no one wants anything to do with Denver. Take the (extra) points with the Broncos and the UNDER as a Max Play.

1 unit on Denver +12.5 (-109) (risk 1 to return 1.92)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Game Total UNDER 45 -109 (risk 2 to return 3.83)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Denver Broncos
0
10
7
7
24
Kansas City Chiefs img
6
7
0
14
27
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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