Denver at Kansas City

The Denver Broncos seem to be one step ahead of the public this season. They scored big upset wins at home vs. the Cowboys, Patriots and last week once again over the Giants. We were on them in a couple of those big upset wins. Just when the public starts believing however, they lose. When the public gets behind them as they are here, things just don't work out. This team has definitely become a team on which it's best to buy low and sell high. Coming off that big Thanksgiving day massacre over the Giants, it's time again to sell. That game was more about the ineptitude of New York than good play by Denver. The Broncos have been horrendous as a favorite as they are just a paltry 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 posted as chalk. This role not only has been unsuitable to the Broncos but the league in general. Good teams that win 60%-75% of their games off an upset win by 14-points or more, really take a fall the following week going 15-42 ATS! Long term a team playing on the road off an upset win as a dog are 144-223 ATS. The Chiefs are off a disappointing big loss, but these teams that lost a week ago by 14+ and are now a home dog have ripped the books for a 60-29 ATS mark. The Chiefs have also thrived against the Broncos taking points at home as they are have won 9 of the 12 outright. Denver is just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. teams with losing records. Denver is a better team than most thought coming into the season, but their stats tell us the truth - this is a mediocre team. They are scoring 17.8 points per game and allowing an equal number. The Chiefs have started off horribly this season going 0-4 SU and ATS. But, they have since adjusted to their new coach and have won five of the last seven ATS. I like the Chiefs here.