Denver at Kansas City

No one wants to touch the 3-8 Broncos after what has gone down the past few weeks. The Broncos handed St. Louis a very rare road win last week, they have Spygate 2 looming, and the fans are calling for the head of Josh McDaniels who has gone 5-16 in his last 21 games. I'm going the other way and backing Denver here. The Denver Broncos most successful game this season was against the Chiefs where they won 49-29. Kyle Orton carved up the Chiefs secondary for four TD passes in that game. Denver has a good passing game and if they can get one early and force the Chiefs out of their comfort zone, which is running the ball, this one could get interesting. The Chiefs seem to thrive as an underdog where they are 4-1 ATS. But, in the favorite role they are just 2-4 ATS in their last six and this is really stretching it out. The Chiefs have not been a 9.5 point favorite or more since 2005 and overall in their last 13 as a favorite they are just 3-9-1 ATS. The Chiefs are improved for sure. But, they aren't ready for this kind of number yet. I like the Broncos plus the points. I also like the UNDER in this game. Kansas City has failed to reach a level of consistency. After scoring 30 points or more the offense tends to suffer in the next game and as a result they are 9-1 to the UNDER in their last ten after scoring 30. Denver has been right with them on that accord as the Broncos have now gone 5-1 to the UNDER after scoring 30+ in their last game. I like Denver and the UNDER in this one.