Denver at Indianapolis

Deja Vu. The Broncos were embarrassed beyond reason last year in this game. Some teams adjust after defeats like that. Others don't The Broncos got drastic and traded away Clinton Portis to get Champ Bailey. Why was that trade made? For this game. Well, maybe not for this particular game but definitely for a game like this. Peyton Manning is lighting things up like no one who has come before him. The Colts are at home and killed the Broncs by 31 ponts last year. Must be another Colts rout, right? My brain says yes but my gut says "trap!" It's just too easy to go with the Colts here. So, I started digging deeper and I now think the Broncos will cover. Why do I think Denver's got a chance here? To begin with, the Broncos have the 4th best defense in the league and the addition of Bailey should alter the result to some extent from what we saw last year at this time. Additionally, the Colts could be looking past this game just a bit, given last year's result and their much anticipated revenge rematch with New England next week. Manning and the Colts are going to score points, but I think Denver can score a few here as well. The Colts defense is weak, giving up 370 yards per game, ranked 29th in the league. Indy has allowed 400+ yards eight times this season. Since 1992, Denver is 41-19 ATS when they gain 400 or more total yards in a game. The Colts have allowed over 125 yards rushing 10 times this season. Denver is 17-6 when they gain 125+ on the ground over the past three seasons. Denver is 25-11 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) since 1992. The big question though - Can the Broncos contain Manning? Believe it or not, I think they have a shot at keeping him in check (at least enough to cover). Denver is ranked 4th in the league in pass defense. Something really not mentioned this year by the ESPN fellows is that Peyton's had a pretty easy set of defenses to rack-up yards and TDs against. Not taking anything away from his record year, but the only passing defense that he has faced this season that is ranked in the top half was Baltimore. That's right, of the 15 games he played, 14 featured opposing defenses that are now ranked in the bottom half of the league in pass defense, including the seven of the nine worst. And one of the two he didn't face? You guessed it - his own team. How did the Colts fare against the Ravens? They scored 20 points - their lowest point total of the season (excluding the final game in which Manning didn't play). Indy won the game but only because the Raven's offense is so pitiful. While I think Indy wins, I smell a rat with this line and think Denver keeps it close throughout or gets the back door cover. I think by game time this line could go as high as 11 so you might want to wait. Two stars on Denver to cover the big number.