Denver at Green Bay

The Packers caught fire late in the season last year and rode the wave of momentum right to a Super Bowl win. At the end of the season, they looked unstoppable. Their offense has picked up right where it left off a year ago with Aaron Rodgers carving up defenses like a Thanksgiving turkey. The problem is their defense, which hasn't hit its stride yet. Everyone knows that this team can score, but despite averaging 33 points per game they have yet to win a game this season by more than 10 points thanks to a defense that has allowed 25 points per game. They have actually only won two of their last nine games by double-digits. This is a perfect spot for a letdown by Green Bay. They are off a game on the road vs. their division rival Chicago Bears, and they head to Atlanta next week. The Broncos have found a way to stay in every game. They are just 1-2, but all three games have gone to the wire and ended within a field goal. Add in the fact that they played two division leaders, and this will be their third. The Packers have historically shown disinterest at home as a heavy chalk where they are 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 as a 10.5+ point favorite. Orton and the Broncos offense can find enough points here to keep the game close. The Broncos have played 11 of their last 17 games to the OVER and Denver has now gone 9-1 to the OVER in their last 10 vs. a winning team. Meanwhile the Packers are 53-26-2 to the OVER vs. a losing team in their last 81. And, the last 19 times the Broncos have faced an offense that scores 29+ points per game, they are 16-3 to the OVER! Take Denver and the OVER in this one.