Denver at Carolina

I talk about it nearly every week, but no one (at least not the oddsmakers) is listening! Denver is NOT an offensive powerhouse! They are not even above-average. The Broncos look like they won't shed the image they created by opening the season with a 38 ppg average in the first three weeks. They have since played ten times to an average of 20.2 ppg, which is below the average NFL team. At the same time, the defensive issues they had early may have played themselves out as they have held three of their last four opponents to 20 or less points. The Panthers have been solid defensively all season at home, where they are allowing 14.4 ppg in seven appearances on their home turf. Denver has been easy to run on, and with DeAngelo Williams emerging as one of the top backs in the NFL, look for Carolina to run the ball a lot in this one in an effort to keep the clock running and limit the opportunities for Jay Cutler and the Denver offense. Fresh in the minds of the betting public is Carolina's 38-point performance on Monday Night against a good Tampa defense. Prior to that they put up 35 vs. Green Bay. But, teams rarely put up elite performances three straight weeks. Carolina has gone 8-0 in their last eight home games to the UNDER vs a team with a winning road record, and 10-4 overall in their last 14 at home. I look for their defense to deliver another UNDER in this one as well.