Dallas at Washington

We were on the Cowboys big last week with one of our five-unit plays. The public was all over Carolina, doubting whether the Cowboys, off a humilating loss the Giants, and with a new quarterback, could do it. Well, very few are doubting Tony Romo and the Boys now. But the pendulum has swung, as it often does in the NFL, too far the other way. Over 80% of this week's bets on this game are coming in on the Cowboys as everyone was "wowed" by Romo last week and their impressive 35-14 win over the Panthers - a team that most people viewed as elite. Well, that pick last week was partly about the teams' relative strengths but partly about situations. It was a very important game for Dallas and there was no doubt they would show up for it after dropping to 3-3 and coming off an embarrassing loss. Carolina was a bit overrated as I stated last week in that they had actually allowed more points than they had scored going into that game. Now everyone is on the Dallas bandwagon as everyone saw Romo play great on national TV last week. And they are down on the Skins who are just 2-5 on the season and off a 36-22 drubbing at the hands of the Colts. But it is nowthe Skins that cannot afford to lose. If they have any playoff aspirations left, no matter how bleak, they must win this important divisional game. Dropping to 2-6 officially kills their season. It's very simple. They must come out fighting and leave it all on the field this Sunday. With Clinton Portis in, I have a lot of faith in this Washington offense. After returning in game 3 this season, the Redskins have scored over 21 points in four of five games. They put up 31 on Houston and 31 on Jacksonville. I expect somewhat of a letdown by the Cowboys who were so up for last week's game. They won't be as up for this one and won't match the intensity of the Skins. They won last week's game in such convincing fashion that they are now beleiving a bit of the hype themselves ("With Romo, we are all set!"). Home underdogs vs. an opponent off a big upset road win come through very well in the NFL for this reason. This is not a statstical play. Dallas is the better team. But, it's a great spot for Washington. And, a great spot for a lot of points. Over the past three seasons, Dallas is 15-5 OVER on the road and 11-3 OVER in close games (+3 to -3). I expect a lot of scoring, with Washington either winning or keeping it close. Skins and the OVER here.