Dallas at Washington

Buy low, sell high. This one sets up as a classic NFL overlay. Dallas is off their biggest win of the season beating the then 13-0 Saints on the road. The Cowboys were so "up" for that game that they caught New Orleans off-guard and they got the "December" monkey off their back in a big way. There is nowhere to go from there but down. Meanwhile, the Skins played their worst game of the season, from coaching staff to player, getting thrashed by the Giants on Monday Night in front of the whole world 45-12. Off a short week, how can they possibly stop the now high-flying Cowboys? Haven't we witnessed this script playing itself out over and over in this league, as too much emphasis is placed on one game? Two weeks ago, everyone was writing the Cowboys off with their home loss to San Diego and December swoon. At the same time, the Skins were being glorified for five straight weeks worth of ATS winners over Denver, Dallas, Oakland, Philly and New Orleans. But now after one week, Dallas is great again and Washington bad. But are the Redskins to be measured from the egg they laid last week, or by the 1-point loss in Big D, 3-point loss in Philly, OT loss to the then unbeaten Saints, and a win in Denver? I think the fact that they played four top teams to the wire exceeds what they did last week. The Skins were 9-point dogs at Philly a short time ago and now they are a TD dog at home to Dallas? That is what you call line value. Let's not forget, despite last week's big win, the Cowboys are still 2-9 ATS in December under Wade Phillips and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 division games. And, the Cowboys could all but barely squeak out a 7-6 victory over Washington in Dallas a few weeks ago. This is a heated division game and a touchdown is just too much. Contrarian play on the Redskins here.