Dallas at Seattle

There are a couple of reasons why you see Dallas as an underdog in this game. First, it is a road game for them. Second, they looked downright horrible in three of the last four weeks getting beaten in those games by a combined score of 55-104. The last loss was considered unforgivable by bettors, a 31-39 defeat at the hands of the lowly Detroit Lions. They have punished Dallas here, making them a field goal dog. But folks let's not lose sight of a very important fact here. Dallas is the best team on this field today. Dallas will come into this game with the #5 ranked offense and the #13 ranked defense. Seattle has had such a weak schedule that they have only seen two teams the entire season that rank in the top half of the league in both offense and defense! They have beaten teams with a combined record of 55-89. They posted just one win vs. a team with a winning record! They have beaten just one playoff team and that's a team that would not be in the playoffs in most years - the 8-8 New York Giants. Dallas finished the season by dropping their last two straight games which, as odd as it may sound, has been a positive signal as we enter the playoffs as these types of teams have covered 74% of their playoff games since 1985. If you review the Dallas season one thing is quite obvious. They have struggled against teams with a good offense. Of their seven losses, six came at the hands of teams with an offense ranked in the top 43% of the league (14 or higher). They gave up 26.7 ppg to those teams. Seattle will bring in the #19 ranked offense which is good news for Dallas. Teams that rank below the top 14 have managed just 15.5 ppg vs. Dallas. If you take out the last game vs. Detroit when Dallas just didn't show up, it is only 10.8 ppg. And that covers five games with no team getting more than 14. Dallas should certainly not let down here like they did vs. the Lions. Seattle got its wins against teams that ranked, on average, 19.3 defensively in league average (below the middle). The Seattle defense, even though it played a weak schedule, ranked just #19. So weak schedule and all, they are below the league average on both sides of the ball while Dallas is above the league average on both sides of the ball including the 4th ranked scoring offense! Seattle this year lost to Arizona and San Francisco twice. Very good football teams, ones favored in the playoffs, should not have that on their resume. The cream more often than not rises to the top in the NFL playoffs with the better team prevailing. It is very rare to get points with the better team but here we do. Grab those points and consider a moneyline play as we like Dallas to advance to the next round.